It seems that the noise that intelligence services were picking up about a heightened threat level in Northern Ireland had some substance. Early reports suggest that two people have been killed and others wounded in a drive-by shooting at an Antrim army base. If these reports are confirmed, it's a tragedy that will reach well beyond the families of those who have been murdered tonight.
The response from Sinn Féin will be critical. If the objective of these attacks is to get Martin McGuinness photographed at a 'Brit' funeral, it will be interesting to see who else will be demanding this in days to come. Anyone who succumbs to the temptation to make short-term political capital out of this could make a bad situation considerably worse.
About the author: Paul is a London-based blogger with a mixed track-record over at Never Trust a Hippy and a few other places. He usually writes about representative democracy and decentralisation. Follow him at www.twitter.com/paul0evans if you usually do that kind of thing. Read more from this author